Spain vs Argentina: can Messi lead Argentina to a back to back win?

Predictions

Our pick is Spain, 1-0, and we do not think Argentina score at all.

Spain are the favorites, and we expect very few goals in this final.

We know that is not the popular call.

Most people are looking at Argentina and seeing Messi, late goals and a team that just keeps winning.

But we are looking at the Spanish defense instead, and we think it is superior to Argentina's incredible squad.

• Our prediction: a 1-0 win for Spain.
• FanDuel (reported by Sports Illustrated): Spain are the favorites to lift the trophy at -154, which is about a 61% chance, with Argentina at +134. For the 90 minutes, Spain are +130, the draw is +190 and Argentina are +260.
• FanDuel's goals market: fewer than 3 goals in the game is priced at -170, and 3 or more goals is +138. So FanDuel expects a tight, low-scoring final.
• FanDuel Research: their expert Chris Beck picks Spain to win 2-1, and his best bet is Spain to lift the cup. He rates Spain's run to the final as untroubled, and Argentina's as a struggle almost the whole way. His warning: Spain have won only 1 of their last 5 penalty shootouts, and a final can go to a shootout if the score is still tied after extra time (30 more minutes).

The 2 teams nobody has beaten

Spain have not lost a game at this World Cup.

Argentina have not lost one either.

That is 7 games each and 0 defeats between them.

But on Sunday one of those 2 records has to break.

There is a second story here, and it might be even bigger.

Sunday is very likely the last time you will ever watch Lionel Messi at a World Cup.

He already won this trophy in 2022, when Argentina beat France on penalties in the final.

Now he can win it one more time and walk away.

Just imagine the noise in that stadium if he does.

But Spain have different plans, and they will not make it easy for him.

They have won the World Cup once, back in 2010, and that is still their only one.

They are also the reigning European champions, which means they won the last European Championship, in 2024.

So the champions of Europe play the champions of the world.

From a 0-0 draw to the final

Spain started this World Cup in the quietest way you can imagine.

Their first game was a 0-0 draw with Cape Verde.

Nobody watching that game was thinking about a final.

Then they started winning, and they never stopped.

They beat Saudi Arabia 4-0 and Uruguay 1-0.

After that came Austria 3-0 and Portugal 1-0.

In the quarter-final they beat Belgium 2-1.

And in the semi-final they beat France 2-0.

Oyarzabal scored a penalty for them in the 22nd minute.

Porro made it 2-0 in the 58th.

France never scored at all.

Argentina's road was a lot harder

Argentina have won all 7 of their games.

They have also scored in every single one.

But almost nothing about their run has been comfortable.

Even if it started in the perfect way.

Messi scored all 3 goals in a 3-0 win over Algeria.

Then they beat Austria 2-0 and Jordan 3-1.

But after that it got messy.

They needed extra time to beat Cape Verde 3-2.

Then came their 3-2 win over Egypt, which is one of the wildest games of the tournament.

They were losing 2-0 after 67 minutes.

They still won it, with goals in the 79th minute, the 83rd minute, and one more right at the end.

Then they needed extra time again to beat Switzerland 3-1.

And in the semi-final they beat England 2-1.

England were winning 1-0 through Gordon in the 55th minute.

But Enzo Fernandez made it 1-1 in the 85th minute.

Then Lautaro Martinez won it right at the end, thanks to a pass from Messi.

Only 1 player has scored against the Spanish defense

That was Charles De Ketelaere of Belgium, in the 41st minute of the quarter-final.

In the other 6 games, nobody scored against Spain at all.

Then there is their midfielder Mikel Merino, who plays for Arsenal.

He keeps coming off the bench and scoring the goal that wins it.

The winner goal against Portugal came in the 91st minute.

Then he did exactly the same thing to Belgium, in the 88th.

So Spain can beat you without their best players even being on the field.

They also have their forward Lamine Yamal, who plays for Barcelona and who at 19 years old is already one of the most impressive players in the world.

And here is the part that should scare Argentina.

Spain knocked France out of the Euro 2024 semi-final on their way to that European title.

Then they knocked France out of a semi-final again this month.

Doing that to the same team twice in a row is not luck.

How can Argentina win it again?

Argentina are the reigning champions, which means they won the last World Cup, in 2022.

They are also 2nd in the FIFA ranking, with Spain 3rd.

So the ranking suggests Argentina could win this one, even though the odds lean toward Spain.

And here is the thing that makes them so hard to beat.

Both teams simply refuse to lose.

Twice at this World Cup they have been losing and still won the game.

Most teams panic in that situation, and Argentina just keep playing.

Then there is their forward Lionel Messi, who plays for Inter Miami.

Against England he did not score a single goal.

But he was the one who opened the game for his teammates, and he allowed Argentina to win anyway.

So you can stop Messi from scoring and still lose to him.

That is the problem Spain have to solve on Sunday.

Our call: Spain 1-0 Argentina

Our 1-0 comes down to something almost nobody is talking about.

Spain have not needed extra time once at this World Cup.

Argentina have needed it twice.

That is 60 more minutes of football than Spain have played, and in a final that shows.

We also think FanDuel has the goals right.

Fewer than 3 goals is the more likely result, and a 2-1 needs 3 of them.

So we are not copying Chris Beck's 2-1.

We think Spain win it by a single goal.

Now the honest part.

Argentina have scored in every game they have played here, so 1-0 means we are calling that run to end as well.

That is the risk in our pick, and we are taking it.

There is one more thing that should worry Spain.

They have won only 1 of their last 5 penalty shootouts.

So if this final is still tied after extra time, we would not back them to win it.

But we do not think it gets that far.

Where and when is the final?

The game is on Sunday, July 19, 2026.

It is played at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, just outside New York City.

Kickoff is at 3:00 PM Eastern time.

There is no next round this time.

The team that wins on Sunday walks off that field as world champions, and you can look back at every step of the bracket that got them there.