Paraguay vs Australia: The Group D Decider for the Last 16

Predictions

Most experts expect a tight, low-scoring game, and they are split on who comes out on top.

Paraguay are slight favorites, but plenty of tipsters like Australia to dig out the result they need.

• Our prediction: Paraguay win 1-0.
• Opta Analyst: a narrow Paraguay win, as their model makes Paraguay slight favorites.
• Yahoo Sports: Australia to come through, in a tense and low-scoring game.

What does each team need?

Both teams have 3 points in Group D, so this game decides who finishes 2nd behind the USA.

Australia are 2nd on goal difference right now, so a win or even a draw would send them through.

Paraguay are just behind on goal difference, so they most likely need to win to grab the spot.

The loser will have to hope they sneak in as one of the 8 best 3rd-placed teams across the 12 groups.

What does Paraguay bring?

Paraguay will be without their main playmaker, Miguel Almirón, the number 10, who is suspended.

Up front they still have Antonio Sanabria, the number 9, and the tricky Julio Enciso, the number 19.

Their 1-0 win over Turkey kept them in the competition after a heavy opening loss to the USA.

The Opta supercomputer makes Paraguay slight favorites, and the bookmakers price them at around +195.

What does Australia bring?

Australia come in with real momentum, having won 7 of their last 10 games.

They are well organized, led by midfielder Jackson Irvine, the number 22, and captain and goalkeeper Mathew Ryan, the number 1.

They beat Turkey 2-0 before losing to the USA, and they know a draw might be enough here.

That is why Yahoo Sports backs them to come through, even at longer odds of around +300.

New to American odds? Our odds converter shows them as fractions or decimals.

Our call: Paraguay 1-0

We are going with a narrow Paraguay win, 1-0.

Paraguay have to win, and that need might just push them over the line.

We expect a tense, low-scoring game, with one goal deciding it.

But this one is a coin-flip, and Australia have the form to prove us wrong.

What is at stake in Group D?

This is the game that decides 2nd place in Group D, with the USA already through as winners.

The winner joins the USA in the last 16, while the loser is left hoping for a best 3rd-place spot.

Because the other Group D game, Turkey vs USA, means little now, all the real drama is right here.

If you want a one-game knockout feel inside the group stage, this is the one to watch.

Where and when can you watch?

The game is on Thursday June 25, 2026, at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, near San Francisco.

Kickoff is 19:00 (7:00 PM) Pacific time.

You can also see all the details on the match page.

Need a seat for it? Take a look at our World Cup tickets guide.