France vs England: both wanted the trophy, now they play for pride

Predictions

We are going with a 3-1 win for France, with England scoring too.

Both France and England wanted to be in the final on Sunday, not in Miami on Saturday.

But both of them are here now, and both of them still want something out of this.

So this game is not really about talent.

It is about who has more left to play for.

And that is where France have the advantage.

They have 2 extra things to play for that England do not have, and we will get to both of them.

England are also still dealing with a semi-final they were winning with 5 minutes left.

• Our prediction: a 3-1 win for France, with England scoring too.
• DraftKings: France are the favorites at +105 to win in the 90 minutes, which is about a 49% chance. England and the draw are both at +255, which is about a 28% chance each.
• DraftKings on the goals: 3 or more goals is the favored bet at -180, which is about a 64% chance.
• FanDuel (reported by FOX Sports): almost the same picture, with France at +100 (about a 50% chance), and England and the draw both at +260 (about 28% each).
• Squawka's model: gives France a 57% chance to win and predicts France 2-1.
• Onside AI: also predicts France 2-1, and its model has France creating 1.7 goals worth of chances against 1.2 for England.

Both of them came here to win the trophy

France did not fly to America hoping for 3rd place.

Neither did England.

Both of them landed here believing this was their year.

Then it was over for both of them, 1 day apart.

So instead they get to play this Saturday afternoon in Miami for a 3rd place that none of them really wanted.

There is no trophy at the end of this one.

And there is one more thing worth knowing before kickoff.

Saturday is Didier Deschamps' last game as France's manager, and he has been in that job for 14 years.

He won this tournament as a France player in 1998.

He won it again as France's manager in 2018.

This is the last World Cup game he will ever manage.

So both of these teams want the same thing.

They want to end this World Cup in a better way than the semi-final that crushed them.

France were perfect until Tuesday

France won their first 6 games at this World Cup.

Then came the semi-final, and France lost 0-2 to Spain.

Spain forward Mikel Oyarzabal scored a penalty in the 22nd minute.

Then the Spanish defender Pedro Porro added a second goal in the 58th.

But the number that really explains that night is this one.

France's expected goals against Spain was 0.30.

Expected goals is a stat that measures how good your chances were, so 0.30 means France barely created anything.

It is their lowest number at a World Cup in 60 years!

Their forward Kylian Mbappe scored in 5 of those 6 wins, and against Spain he did not score once.

So the team that scored in every game suddenly could not score at all.

England were 5 minutes from the final

England's semi-final went wrong in a much crueler way.

England forward Anthony Gordon scored in the 55th minute to make it 1-0 against Argentina.

And for the next 30 minutes it looked like England were going to the World Cup final.

Then Argentina midfielder Enzo Fernandez scored in the 85th minute to make it 1-1.

And Argentina forward Lautaro Martinez made it 2-1 in the 92nd minute.

Largely thanks to Lionel Messi, who set up both goals.

So England lost 1-2 to Argentina, and a place in the World Cup final disappeared in 7 minutes.

That is the team France meet on Saturday.

England have had just 3 days to get over that night.

That is not very long at all.

France have 2 reasons to want this game

France are 1st in the FIFA ranking and England are 4th.

But a ranking does not decide a game like this one.

So what are France actually playing for on Saturday?

There are 2 things, and both of them are real.

The first is their forward Kylian Mbappe.

He has 8 goals at this World Cup.

The other man on 8 goals is Lionel Messi, who is a forward for Argentina.

The prize for the top scorer of a World Cup is called the Golden Boot, and right now those 2 share it.

But Mbappe plays on Saturday and Messi plays in the final after him.

So for a day, Mbappe can be the top scorer of this World Cup on his own.

Trust me, a forward wants that badly.

The second is their manager.

Deschamps has 90 minutes left in a job he has held for 14 years, and his players can send him out with a win.

That is a real reason to run hard on a Saturday when the trophy is already gone.

England want this just as much, but they have nothing extra like that.

England can still ruin the farewell

None of that means England will make it easy.

Their midfielder Jude Bellingham already showed what he does when a game gets big.

He scored both goals in the 2-1 quarter-final win over Norway.

Then there is their forward Harry Kane, who plays for Bayern Munich.

England were losing 1-0 to DR Congo, because DR Congo forward Brian Cipenga scored in the 7th minute.

Then Harry Kane scored in the 75th and again in the 86th to win it 2-1.

So England have players who score when it matters.

That was never their problem.

Their problem is what happened to the 1-0 lead they spent 30 minutes protecting against Argentina.

Their manager Thomas Tuchel is German, and he now has to make a beaten England team care about a game they never wanted.

England have not won the World Cup since 1966 and have not reached a final since.

A bronze medal will not change that.

But losing to France on Saturday would make a bad week even worse.

Our call: France 3-1 England

So why 3-1?

France scored in every single game until Spain stopped them.

England just let in 2 goals in the last 7 minutes of a semi-final.

And there is a physical side to this that nobody talks about.

England have played 660 minutes at this World Cup against France's 630, because England needed extra time to get past Norway and France never did.

England also get 1 day less rest, because they played their semi-final on July 15 and France played theirs on July 14.

So England arrive in Miami having played more football and rested less.

Put all of that together and 3-1 is not a wild guess.

We are 1 goal above the models here, and we know it.

Squawka and Onside AI both say France 2-1.

But the books are with us on the goals, and that is the part we trust.

We are not saying France win this easily, though.

England have too many good attackers for France to stop them scoring for 90 minutes.

So we have England scoring, France scoring more, and Mbappe getting the goal he came for.

Where and when is the third-place playoff?

The game is on Saturday, July 18, 2026.

It is played at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.

Kickoff is at 5:00 PM Eastern time.

The full knockout bracket shows how both teams got to Miami.