Belgium vs Senegal: The Closest Game of the Whole Round?

Predictions

The experts are split right down the middle on this one.

The bookmakers can barely split these two teams, and that almost never happens.

Belgium are loaded with stars, but Senegal are fast, powerful and full of danger.

So this one really could go either way, and the experts do not even agree.

• Our prediction: a tight Belgium win, 2-1.
• NBC Sports: a Senegal upset, with the underdogs going through.
• FOX Sports: a slight lean to Belgium in a game that is close to a coin flip.

Belgium are packed with stars

Few teams here have this much talent in one squad.

That is why Belgium arrive as one of the most feared attacking teams in the tournament.

Their players line up for some of the biggest clubs in Europe, and it shows.

They also won Group G with 5 points, so they come in as group winners.

It was not all smooth, though, because they started slowly.

First they drew 1-1 with Egypt, then they played out a goalless 0-0 draw with Iran.

But then they saved their best for last and beat New Zealand 5-1 in style.

So they hit the knockouts in form, with their attack finally clicking.

Senegal are fast, powerful and dangerous

Here is why nobody wants to face this team right now.

Senegal are quick, strong, and they hurt you the second you give them space.

But they had a hard time on the way to this stage.

They came through Group I as one of the best third-placed teams on only 3 points.

It started badly, with a 3-1 loss to France and then a 3-2 loss to Norway.

But they refused to go home and crushed Iraq 5-0 to grab their place.

So this is a wounded, hungry team that knows how to bite back.

Why is this game so close?

Most knockout games have a clear favorite, but this one does not.

The reason is simple, both teams are good in different ways.

Belgium have the bigger names and the more famous attack players.

But Senegal have the speed and the power to trouble anyone.

You can see it in the odds, which are about as tight as they get.

Belgium are only slight favorites at about +105, which is roughly a 49% chance to win in 90 minutes.

The draw sits near +220, and Senegal are right behind at about +290, about a 26% chance.

To go through overall, Belgium are about -194, roughly a 66% chance, and Senegal sit at about +158.

So Senegal are the underdogs, but they have a very real chance to win.

Our call: 2-1 for Belgium

We are leaning to Belgium, but only by a small margin.

The reason is their attack, which has more match-winners than Senegal can handle.

When the game opens up, we think Belgium have the quality to score twice.

But we are not calling an easy win, and that is on purpose.

Senegal are far too fast and dangerous to be kept quiet for 90 minutes.

That is why we land on a 2-1 win for Belgium, with Senegal scoring too.

And honestly, Senegal can absolutely pull off the upset if they take their chances.

Where and when is the match?

The game is on Wednesday July 1, 2026 at Lumen Field stadium, in Seattle, Washington.

And kickoff is 1:00 PM Pacific time.

Still need a ticket? Take a look at our World Cup tickets guide.