Netherlands vs Sweden: The Favorites Chase a Win After a Slow Start

Predictions

The Netherlands are the clear favorites here, and even after their slow start, most people expect them to win.

Sweden are flying though, so the favorites cannot take this one lightly.

• Our prediction: the Netherlands win 2-1, their quality showing after a slow start.
• ClutchPoints: a Netherlands win, the favorites' depth and class telling.
• Yahoo Sports: a 2-2 draw, with Sweden staying top of the group.
• Racing Post: a Netherlands win in a high-scoring game.

Why this game matters so much

Here is why this one is bigger than it looks.

This is the Netherlands against Sweden, and the table has a surprise on it.

The Netherlands came in as the big favorites of the group.

But they only drew 2-2 with Japan in their first game, so they dropped points right away.

Sweden did the opposite, and they beat Tunisia 5-1 when almost nobody saw it coming.

So the favorites are under pressure, and the underdogs are top of the group.

That makes this a real test, because the Netherlands need a win to take control, and Sweden could take a big step toward the next round if they win here.

Why the Dutch are still the favorites

The Netherlands are 7th in the FIFA rankings, and that class does not just disappear after one draw.

They have one of the strongest attacks in the whole tournament.

So even on a quiet day they carry a real threat in front of goal.

On the touchline they have coach Ronald Koeman, who knows this team inside out.

The bookmakers agree, because they give the Netherlands about a 58% chance to win this game.

A draw is priced at about 3 to 1, and a Sweden win at about 4 to 1.

So we expect the Netherlands to take this, and most experts lean the same way.

Why Sweden are dangerous

Sweden are 30th in the FIFA rankings, so on paper they are the underdogs.

But that big 5-1 win over Tunisia means nobody can take them lightly now.

They have real firepower up front, and that is what makes them scary.

Their two strikers can score in a heartbeat, and one of them has a brilliant record for the national team.

They also have fast players out on the wings, the sides of the field, and a midfield that keeps pushing forward.

On the touchline they have coach Graham Potter, who has them playing with belief.

So if Sweden play their best again, they really do have a chance to upset the favorites and stay top of the group.

Our call: Netherlands 2-1

We are calling it Netherlands 2-1.

The Dutch have too much quality up front to stay quiet for a second game in a row.

We think their depth and class win out over 90 minutes.

Now here is the honest part.

Sweden push a lot of players forward, and that can leave space for the fast Dutch forwards to attack.

So we expect goals at both ends, and we would not be shocked if this turns into a high-scoring game.

What is at stake?

Right now Sweden lead Group F with 3 points and a plus-4 goal difference.

The Netherlands sit on 1 point after their draw, level with Japan, while Tunisia have 0.

The top 2 teams in the group go through to the next round.

Some of the best 3rd-place teams also make it through.

So a Netherlands win would flip the group on its head and put them right back in control.

A Sweden result, on the other hand, would take them a big step toward the round of 32 with a game still to play.

That is what gives this game its edge, the favorites chasing the lead and the underdogs chasing history.

Where and when can you watch?

The game is on Friday June 20, 2026, at NRG Stadium in Houston.

Kickoff is 12:00 (12:00 PM) Central time.

You can also see all the details on the match page.

Need a seat for it? Take a look at our World Cup tickets guide.