Japan vs Sweden: Japan Can Top the Group, Sweden Must Win

Predictions

Most tipsters lean towards Japan here, but Sweden's big-name strikers mean an upset is possible.

Japan have the strongest team here, while Sweden have the firepower to hurt anyone on their day.

• Our prediction: Japan win 2-1, with their solid defense just edging a tight game.
• Yahoo Sports: a Japan win, most likely 2-1.
• Racing Post: a Sweden upset, with striker Alexander Isak to score in a high-scoring game.
• The betting market: Japan are the favorites at about -105, so the odds point to a Japan win.

What do Japan and Sweden need?

Japan sit 2nd in Group F on 4 points, just behind the Netherlands on goal difference.

A win here makes Japan group winners and sends them straight into the last 16.

They got here by drawing 2-2 with the Netherlands and then thrashing Tunisia 4-0.

Sweden, on 3 points, are in a tighter spot, and they really need to win to be sure of going through.

A draw or a loss would likely send them home, especially after their goal difference took a hit in that 5-1 defeat to the Netherlands.

Why are Japan the favorites?

Japan have the meanest defense in the group, letting in just 2 goals in 2 games.

Their in-form striker is Ayase Ueda, the number 18, who has already scored 2 goals at this World Cup.

Behind him, the number 15 Daichi Kamada has also scored twice and runs the midfield.

That is why the bookmakers make Japan slight favorites at about -105, with a Sweden win out at around +275.

You can turn these odds into your preferred format with our odds converter.

Can Sweden cause an upset?

Sweden have lost their last game heavily, but they carry a real threat up front.

Their main man is striker Alexander Isak, the number 9, of Liverpool, one of the most feared finishers in Europe.

Next to him is the number 17 Viktor Gyökeres of Arsenal, who already scored at this World Cup.

With two strikers like that, and a game they have to win, Sweden will throw everything forward.

Our call: Japan 2-1

We are going with Japan 2-1.

Japan have been the more complete team, and their defense has barely put a foot wrong.

But Sweden have to chase the game, so we expect them to grab a goal through Isak or Gyökeres.

In the end, we think Japan's balance just edges a fast, open contest.

What is at stake in Group F?

This is one of the tightest groups at the World Cup, and it all comes down to the final night.

The Netherlands and Japan lead on 4 points, Sweden are right behind on 3, and only Tunisia are already out of the knockout race.

So a Sweden win could knock Japan down to 2nd, or worse if results swing elsewhere.

The other game, Tunisia vs Netherlands, kicks off at the exact same time, so the whole group could be reshaped in seconds.

If you want real stakes and two world-class strikers chasing goals, this is the game to watch.

Where and when can you watch?

The game is on Thursday June 25, 2026, at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, near Dallas.

Kickoff is 18:00 (6:00 PM) Central time.

You can also see all the details on the match page.

Need a seat for it? Take a look at our World Cup tickets guide.