Germany vs Paraguay: Can a Wall of Defenders Stop the Favorites?

Predictions

Germany are heavy favorites to win this game.

They have a faster, scarier attack than almost anyone left in the tournament.

But here is the catch, Paraguay are happy to put 10 men behind the ball and defend all day.

So the real question is not who wins, it is how long Germany have to wait to break them down.

• Our prediction: Germany win 3-1.
• BetMGM: a strong Germany win, with the only doubt being how comfortable it is.
• SportsLine: Germany control the game and advance to the last 16.

Germany are one of the giants of the game

Few teams have a history like this one.

In fact Germany have won the World Cup 4 times, in 1954, 1974, 1990 and 2014.

That is why the whole world expects them to go far every single tournament.

And this team is full of exciting young attackers who play for the biggest clubs in Europe.

They also topped Group E with 6 points, so they arrive as group winners.

It started in style, with a big 7-1 win when they beat Curacao and then a 2-1 win over Ivory Coast.

But there was a small wobble at the end, because they lost 2-1 to Ecuador in their last group game.

So they are clearly the better team here, but they are not bulletproof right now.

Paraguay are built to frustrate the big teams

Here is why this game is trickier than it looks.

Paraguay do not try to outscore you, they try to lock the door and keep you out.

They stay back, defend close to their own goal, and make every chance a hard one.

You saw it when they came through Group D as one of the best third-placed teams on 4 points.

Yes, they lost 4-1 to the United States in their opener, which hurt.

But then they beat Turkey 1-0 and showed their real plan.

And in their last game they dug in for a 0-0 draw with Australia, which is exactly how they like to play.

So Germany will not get an easy, open game here.

Why are Germany the favorites?

Germany are ahead mostly because of their attacking quality.

Put simply, they have more match-winners than Paraguay can mark out of the game.

Their midfielder Jamal Musiala is one of the most dangerous players in the world.

And alongside him, Florian Wirtz and striker Kai Havertz add even more goals and creativity.

The odds tell the same story, with Germany around -280, which is roughly a 74% chance to win in 90 minutes.

Paraguay are big underdogs at about +800, which is only about an 11% chance, and the draw sits near +400.

Put it all together, and you see why Germany are such strong favorites.

Our call: 3-1 for Germany

We think Germany have too much firepower for this one to stay close.

The reason is simple, a defense that only wants to survive usually cracks against this much attacking talent.

So we expect Germany to wear Paraguay down and score a few before the end.

But we are not calling a clean win for them, and that is on purpose.

Paraguay carry a real threat on the counter, so we think they score one goal back.

That is why we land on a 3-1 win for Germany, with Paraguay grabbing a consolation goal.

Where and when is the match?

The game is on Monday June 29, 2026 at Gillette Stadium, in Foxborough, Massachusetts.

And kickoff is 4:30 PM Eastern time.

Still need a ticket? Take a look at our World Cup tickets guide.