France vs Sweden: Can the Underdogs Slow Down the World Champions?

Predictions

France are the clear favorites and are expected to win comfortably.

They won their group with a perfect score and look like one of the best teams in the whole tournament.

Sweden, on the other hand, barely scraped through and had a rough group stage.

So this looks like a tough night for the underdogs, but a knockout game can always surprise you.

• Our prediction: France win 3-0.
• DraftKings: France are clear favorites to win and move on.
• NBC Sports: France win comfortably and reach the next stage.

France are world champions and full of stars

Not many teams arrive at a World Cup with this much firepower.

In fact France won the whole thing in 2018 and then reached the final again in 2022.

So this is a team that knows exactly how to win big games on the biggest stage.

And right now they are packed with attackers who play for the biggest clubs in Europe.

They also topped Group I with a perfect 9 points, the best record you can have.

It started with a 3-1 win over Senegal, then a 3-0 win against Iraq.

And they saved the best for last, with a big 4-1 win away at Norway.

So France come into this game in red-hot form and full of goals.

Sweden took the hard road to get here

Here is why Sweden are the big underdogs in this one.

Sweden had a real up-and-down group stage and never looked settled.

They scraped through Group F as one of the best third-placed teams, with just 4 points.

It started so well, with a big 5-1 win over Tunisia, which got everyone excited.

But then reality hit, and the Netherlands beat them 5-1, the exact same score the other way.

They finished with a 1-1 draw against Japan, which was just enough to sneak through.

Now they have a new coach in Graham Potter, who is trying to make them tough to beat.

So Sweden will dig in and defend hard, because they know they cannot trade goals with France.

Why are France the favorites?

France are ahead mostly because of their incredible attack.

Put simply, they have more match-winners up front than Sweden can handle.

Their forward Kylian Mbappé is one of the fastest, most dangerous players on the planet.

And next to him, forward Ousmane Dembélé and striker Marcus Thuram add even more pace and goals.

The odds tell the same story, with France around -330, which is roughly a 77% chance to win in 90 minutes.

Sweden are big underdogs at about +900, which is only about a 10% chance, and the draw sits near +475.

Put it all together, and you see why France are such strong favorites.

Our call: 3-0 for France

We think France have far too much quality for Sweden to live with for 90 minutes.

The reason is simple, their front players can score from almost anywhere on the pitch.

So we expect France to break Sweden down and pull clear in the second half.

And we are calling a win where Sweden do not score, which is the part that surprises some people.

But Sweden are happy to sit back and defend, so they will not throw bodies forward and leave gaps.

That is why we land on a 3-0 win for France, with Sweden defending hard but still going out.

Where and when is the match?

The game is on Tuesday June 30, 2026 at MetLife Stadium, in East Rutherford, New Jersey.

And kickoff is 5:00 PM Eastern time.

Still need a ticket? Take a look at our World Cup tickets guide.