England vs Croatia: A 2018 Semi-Final Rematch in Group L

Predictions

Everyone leans the same way: England are the favorites and are expected to win, but Croatia have the experience to make it tight.

• Our prediction: England win 2-1 in a close, competitive game.
• Sky Sports: England to win 2-1.
• One expert: a controlled, low-scoring England win, leaning under 2.5 goals.
• Betting market: England heavy favorites at around 4/6, Croatia around 4/1, a draw around 11/4.

The 2018 semi-final, all over again

Some games carry a story before a ball is even kicked.

This is England against Croatia, and the date 2018 hangs over all of it.

That summer, in the semi-final of the 2018 World Cup, Croatia beat England 2-1.

It sent Croatia to their first ever World Cup final, and it ended England's best run in a generation.

England did get revenge later, with a win over Croatia at Euro 2020, the tournament that was actually played in 2021.

But the 2018 wound is the one people remember.

Here is the strange part: in 6 competitive meetings between these 2 teams, Croatia have won just once.

That one win was the semi-final, so Croatia took the biggest night and England took almost everything else.

Now they meet on a fresh stage, in Texas, with a new England team and an old score to settle.

Why England are clear favorites

This is a very different England side from the one that lost in 2018.

They are now coached by Thomas Tuchel, a manager who has won the Champions League.

And they arrive in frightening form.

England are unbeaten since October 2024.

They finished their qualifiers without a single defeat, winning 8 games and conceding 0 goals along the way.

A team that does not concede is a nightmare to play against.

The squad is loaded too.

Captain Harry Kane is expected to lead the line, with Jude Bellingham of Real Madrid and Declan Rice of Arsenal running the midfield and Bukayo Saka out wide.

England are also dealing with a 60-year-old pain.

They won the World Cup in 1966 and have chased a second one ever since.

That is why we call a 2-1, an England win that still has to be earned.

The betting market agrees and makes England heavy favorites at around 4/6, with Croatia out at around 4/1.

Modric's last dance

Croatia are smaller than England, and they are tougher than their size suggests.

They are coached by Zlatko Dalic, the man who led them to that 2018 final.

At the heart of it all is captain Luka Modric, 40 years old.

This is almost certainly his last major tournament.

Modric is the leader of a brilliant veteran generation that has dragged a country of under 4 million people to the very top of world football.

They reached the 2018 World Cup final, where they lost to France.

You write Croatia off at your own risk.

They know how to slow a game down, control the midfield, and punish one mistake.

For a player like Modric, a famous win over England would be the perfect way to start a farewell.

What is at stake?

Group L also has Ghana and Panama, so there is plenty to play for.

Finish in the top 2 of the group and you go through.

Finish 3rd and you can still make it as one of the 8 best third-place teams.

Those teams reach the round of 32, the knockout stage where one loss sends you home.

England will want a confident win here to take control of the group early.

Croatia know that beating the favorites in the opener would change the whole feel of their tournament.

That is what makes this game so easy to love, because there is real history riding on it.

Where and when can you watch?

The game is today, Wednesday June 17 2026, at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

Kickoff is 15:00 (3:00 PM) Central time.

You can also see all the details on the match page.

Still hunting a seat? Check our World Cup tickets guide.

Check your local World Cup broadcaster for the channel where you live.