England vs Argentina: Even the Experts Cannot Agree on This One

Predictions

Our call is a 2-1 win for England, and honestly, this is the hardest game we have had to pick.

So the people who do this for a living are looking at the same game and seeing 2 different winners.

• Our prediction: a tight 2-1 win for England.
• DraftKings: England are the slight favorites at +155 to win in the 90 minutes, with Argentina at +205 and the draw at +200. To reach the final it is England -135 and Argentina +110, so England have about a 57% chance to go through.
• DraftKings on the goals: fewer than 3 goals is the clear favorite at -165, and 3 or more goals is +130.
• CBS Sports: their expert Martin Green takes 3 or more goals at +138, because he thinks both defenses can be got at. He says Argentina's Cristian Romero makes mistakes and Lisandro Martinez struggles in the air, so Kane and Bellingham should get their chances.
• Total Football Analysis: their writer Marvin Smith calls it the other way, 2-1 to Argentina.
• The recent goals: England's last 3 games have produced 3.7 goals each on average, and 5 of the last 7 meetings between these 2 countries had 3 or more goals.

The Game England and Argentina Fans Waited 24 Years For

It feels like every time these 2 meet, it is a memorable football match.

They played in 1986, then in 1998, and once more in 2002.

And to this day, fans in both countries can still tell you exactly what happened in every one of those games.

Then 24 years went by, and a whole generation grew up never seeing this game.

Now it is back, and this time the winner goes to the World Cup final.

For England, there is even more to it than that.

They won the World Cup in 1966, and they have never been in a final since.

That is 60 years of waiting, and it is 90 minutes away from ending.

No wonder this one feels different.

How Did England Get to the Semi-Finals?

England are here, but this run has not been easy.

In the quarter-final they needed extra time to beat Norway 2-1, and extra time means the 30 more minutes you play when the score is still tied after 90.

One player won them that game, their midfielder Jude Bellingham.

He scored both of England's goals, and Norway could only answer once.

That is what this England team keeps doing, finding somebody to rescue them right when they need it.

Earlier in the tournament they were losing to DR Congo, until their captain Harry Kane scored twice in the last 15 minutes to win it 2-1.

So they are through, and they are 90 minutes from a final.

But that game took absolutely everything they had.

Argentina Are Still Here, and Still Champions

Argentina won the World Cup in 2022, so they arrive here as the champions everybody wants to beat.

In the quarter-final they beat Switzerland 3-1, and they needed extra time to do that too.

And of course, it was their forward Lionel Messi who set up the first goal in that game.

It was not their first long evening either.

They also needed extra time to get past Cape Verde earlier in the tournament.

So this is not a perfect Argentina team, and other teams have pushed them very hard.

But they keep winning anyway, and that is what champions do.

Why Do the Bookmakers Have England in Front?

It comes down to goals, and England have 2 players getting them.

Their captain and striker Harry Kane has 6 at this World Cup, and Bellingham has 6 as well.

That matters more than it sounds, because a team with 2 scorers is much harder to plan against.

Stop one of them and the other one can still beat you on his own.

Then there is their coach, Thomas Tuchel, who is German.

An English team being taken to a World Cup semi-final by a German coach is not something anyone saw coming.

But it is working, and nobody in England is complaining about it now.

Put all of that together and you can see why the odds have England in front, even if it is only by a little.

How Can Argentina Send England Home?

But there is one very good reason to think Argentina win this, and his name is Lionel Messi.

Nobody at this World Cup has scored more than him.

And this is very likely the last World Cup he will ever play.

Just think about what that does to a player like him.

One more win and he gets one more final, and he already knows exactly how it feels to win one.

Now look at where England are weak.

They have let in a goal in 3 games in a row, and their goalkeeper Jordan Pickford has made 12 saves to rescue them.

That is a lot of chances for the other team, and Messi does not need many.

And there is one more strange thing about this game.

Argentina are 2nd in the FIFA ranking and England are only 4th, so the higher ranked team is not even the favorite here.

That is because both of these teams fought their way through the knockout rounds, and now 1 game is all that stands between them and the final.

But they must feel already drained after so many matches played.

Our Call: England 2-1 Argentina

So why 2-1, and not the low-scoring game the bookmakers are expecting?

Because we think England score twice, and we do not think they stop Messi.

Switzerland already got a goal past Argentina in the quarter-final, so Kane and Bellingham have a real chance of doing the same.

At the other end, we expect Messi to get his goal, because he almost always does.

Remember, both of these teams played 120 minutes on Saturday, so the last 20 minutes here could get very tense.

And tired defenders make mistakes, which is exactly how a 1-1 turns into a 2-1.

Just picture Mercedes-Benz Stadium in the final minutes, England leading 2-1, and Messi getting one last touch of the ball.

Where and When Is the Match?

The game is on Wednesday, July 15, 2026.

It is played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia.

Kickoff is at 3:00 PM Eastern time.

The winner of this one goes to the World Cup final.

You can find all the extra details on the match page.