Ecuador vs Germany: Ecuador Must Win to Stay Alive

Predictions

Almost everyone is backing Germany to win here, even if they rest a few of their stars.

Ecuador must win to have any chance, but they have not scored a goal at this World Cup yet.

• Our prediction: Germany win 2-0, with their quality showing through in the end.
• Yahoo Sports: a Germany win, most likely 2-0 or 3-0.
• Racing Post: a Germany win with both teams scoring, and Deniz Undav to find the net.
• VSiN: a tight, low-scoring game, with under 2.5 goals.

What do Ecuador need to go through?

Ecuador sit 3rd in Group E on 1 point, and the math is brutal.

First, they must beat Germany, because a draw or a loss sends them out.

Even a win would likely leave them 3rd, so they would then need to finish as one of the 8 best 3rd-place teams across all 12 groups.

And since they have not scored a single goal yet, after losing 0-1 to Ivory Coast and then drawing 0-0 with Curaçao, they probably need to win by several goals to climb that 3rd-place table.

It is a huge ask, made even harder by the loss of young playmaker Kendry Páez, who is suspended after picking up too many yellow cards.

Why are Germany the favorites?

Germany are already top of Group E on a perfect 6 points, and they are all but guaranteed to finish first whatever happens in this game.

They beat Curaçao 7-1 and then beat Ivory Coast 2-1.

Their hottest player is striker Deniz Undav, the number 26, who has already scored 3 goals at this World Cup.

Behind him, the number 10 Jamal Musiala and the number 17 Florian Wirtz pull the strings.

That is why the bookmakers make them clear favorites at about -120, while an Ecuador win is way out at around +500.

You can turn these odds into your preferred format with our odds converter.

Can Ecuador cause a shock?

Ecuador are well organized and hard to beat, so do not expect a thrashing.

Their main hope is midfielder Moisés Caicedo, the number 23, of Chelsea, who breaks up play and drives the team forward.

If they are going to pull off a shock, they will need him at his very best, and they will need to finally find the net.

Our call: Germany 2-0

We are going with Germany 2-0.

They have far more quality, and Ecuador have struggled to create chances.

Even if Germany rest their big names and field their B team to save energy for the knockout round, they should still have enough talent to win.

But if Ecuador are going to score their first goal, it has to be now, so they will throw players forward.

What is at stake in Group E?

Germany have already done the hard part, so the real drama here is whether Ecuador can finally come alive.

They have gone 180 minutes without a single goal, and now they must score against the best team in the group to have any shot at the next round.

At the very same time, the other knockout ticket is being fought over next door in Curaçao vs Ivory Coast.

So two games run side by side all night, and one goal in either could flip who goes home.

If you love a final group night where everything can change in a moment, this is the one to watch.

Where and when can you watch?

The game is on Thursday June 25, 2026, at MetLife Stadium near New York.

Kickoff is 16:00 (4:00 PM) Eastern time.

You can also see all the details on the match page.

Need a seat for it? Take a look at our World Cup tickets guide.